With the eligibility criteria getting more demanding for pilots, the US airlines are having an acute shortage of pilots, not experienced after 1960s, what with more and more pilots due to retire shortly. According to the new federal policy, newly hired pilots to have at least 1,500 hours of prior flight experience (six times the current minimum) raising the cost and time to train new fliers in a time when pay cuts and more-demanding schedules already have made the profession less glamorous and unattractive.
Another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply, by giving pilots more daily rest time. This change is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot ranks by at least 5%. Adding to the problem is a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains.
"Global pilot shortage signs are increasingly going up as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," Boeing wrote in its long-term market outlook. "Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints." According to Boeing, during the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific demand will reach 183,200 pilots, with China accounting for 72,700. "Europe will need 92,500 pilots; North America, 82,800; Latin America, 41,200; the Middle East, 36,600; Africa 14,300; and the CIS 9,900."
Where will these new pilots be trained is the question arising now. Executive director of National Association of Flight Instructors (NAFI) Jason Blair and a member of NAFI Jonathon Freye have brought out a paper detailing how dramatically the pilot training industry in the US is going to change because of a mandatory legislation requiring an airline pilot to have at least 1500 hours and an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate. With a recent release of an FAA notice of the proposed rule making, the legislation is headed towards becoming a regulation. The ATP requires at least 1500 hours of flight time and both the airlines captain and first officers would both have to carry them. The ICAO's multi-crew pilot licensing scheme requires only a minimum 240 hours of flight time and surprisingly the US legislation has come at a time when non US airlines are adopting the ICAO's scheme
Blair and Freye are concerned with the mandatory hour limits for obtaining a commercial airline license. This includes 250 hours in the air and training time resulting in 1,500 total hours. This will add an additional burden on those looking to hire pilots and make it more difficult to get a license.
In the white paper, they explained how new rules have been implemented and those rules will not support commercial airline pilots being trained by the flight training industry. Part 121 pilots will, therefore, not be guaranteed training from flight training professionals. The industry simply won't be able to train enough pilots or guarantee that they have the right amount of experience. Therefore, top flight training cannot be realistically achieved.
Statistics provided by Blair and Freye show some interesting facts like a decline in the pilots license issued in the US from 156,955 in 1990 to 93,861 in 2009. 15,500 commercial and 8,437 ATP certificates were issued in 1990 but they dropped to 11,350 commercial and only 3,113 ATP certificates in the year 2009. 4,140 new airline pilots are required per year only in the US according to an outlook by Boeing and these numbers don't include corporate and charter aircraft pilots, flight instructors and other types of working pilots
The decreasingly small number of active certified flight instructors (CFIs) is probably more cause for alarm, according to Blair and Freye. To determine the number of active flight instructors, they compared the total number of CFIs in the U.S. to the number of CFIs that have endorsed a pilot for a check ride in the previous five years. Their conclusion: only 13.8 percent of the 96,473 CFIs in the U.S. are actively teaching. And the ranks of new CFIs keep declining; just 4,348 were added in 2009, down from a high of 8,164 in 1991.
"There is no feasible way given the current status of the airline pilot training industry, and industry standard training model, to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers," the white paper concluded. "There is no single solution to the predicted pilot shortage. The airlines, the FAA, and the flight training industry acknowledge the problem, but policymakers continue to ignore it. Even the FAA has acknowledged the need for 'creative approaches to pilot training.' Interim solutions may necessarily encompass reductions in service to match a sustainable level of qualified airmen; finding service alternatives if domestic carriers cannot provide a level compatible with demand; and developing a training process that, while cost effective and possibly different from current proposals, also meets the skill level and competency required of the airline environment. None of these solutions includes leaving the system as it is currently. If forecasts about the pilot shortage come to fruition while licensure rates continue to decline, change will be inevitable for the flight training industry."
Another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply, by giving pilots more daily rest time. This change is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot ranks by at least 5%. Adding to the problem is a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains.
"Global pilot shortage signs are increasingly going up as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," Boeing wrote in its long-term market outlook. "Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints." According to Boeing, during the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific demand will reach 183,200 pilots, with China accounting for 72,700. "Europe will need 92,500 pilots; North America, 82,800; Latin America, 41,200; the Middle East, 36,600; Africa 14,300; and the CIS 9,900."
Where will these new pilots be trained is the question arising now. Executive director of National Association of Flight Instructors (NAFI) Jason Blair and a member of NAFI Jonathon Freye have brought out a paper detailing how dramatically the pilot training industry in the US is going to change because of a mandatory legislation requiring an airline pilot to have at least 1500 hours and an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate. With a recent release of an FAA notice of the proposed rule making, the legislation is headed towards becoming a regulation. The ATP requires at least 1500 hours of flight time and both the airlines captain and first officers would both have to carry them. The ICAO's multi-crew pilot licensing scheme requires only a minimum 240 hours of flight time and surprisingly the US legislation has come at a time when non US airlines are adopting the ICAO's scheme
Blair and Freye are concerned with the mandatory hour limits for obtaining a commercial airline license. This includes 250 hours in the air and training time resulting in 1,500 total hours. This will add an additional burden on those looking to hire pilots and make it more difficult to get a license.
In the white paper, they explained how new rules have been implemented and those rules will not support commercial airline pilots being trained by the flight training industry. Part 121 pilots will, therefore, not be guaranteed training from flight training professionals. The industry simply won't be able to train enough pilots or guarantee that they have the right amount of experience. Therefore, top flight training cannot be realistically achieved.
Statistics provided by Blair and Freye show some interesting facts like a decline in the pilots license issued in the US from 156,955 in 1990 to 93,861 in 2009. 15,500 commercial and 8,437 ATP certificates were issued in 1990 but they dropped to 11,350 commercial and only 3,113 ATP certificates in the year 2009. 4,140 new airline pilots are required per year only in the US according to an outlook by Boeing and these numbers don't include corporate and charter aircraft pilots, flight instructors and other types of working pilots
The decreasingly small number of active certified flight instructors (CFIs) is probably more cause for alarm, according to Blair and Freye. To determine the number of active flight instructors, they compared the total number of CFIs in the U.S. to the number of CFIs that have endorsed a pilot for a check ride in the previous five years. Their conclusion: only 13.8 percent of the 96,473 CFIs in the U.S. are actively teaching. And the ranks of new CFIs keep declining; just 4,348 were added in 2009, down from a high of 8,164 in 1991.
"There is no feasible way given the current status of the airline pilot training industry, and industry standard training model, to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers," the white paper concluded. "There is no single solution to the predicted pilot shortage. The airlines, the FAA, and the flight training industry acknowledge the problem, but policymakers continue to ignore it. Even the FAA has acknowledged the need for 'creative approaches to pilot training.' Interim solutions may necessarily encompass reductions in service to match a sustainable level of qualified airmen; finding service alternatives if domestic carriers cannot provide a level compatible with demand; and developing a training process that, while cost effective and possibly different from current proposals, also meets the skill level and competency required of the airline environment. None of these solutions includes leaving the system as it is currently. If forecasts about the pilot shortage come to fruition while licensure rates continue to decline, change will be inevitable for the flight training industry."
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